Aluminum alloy import and export
According to the full statistical aperture including aluminum alloy products, aluminum alloy has been in a state of trade surplus since 2003, but in recent years, the difference between imports and exports is gradually shrinking. From 2016 to 2022, the export volume of aluminum alloy only increased from 3.86 million tons/year to 5.18 million tons/year, but the import volume increased from 360,000 tons/year to 1.65 million tons/year, and the growth rate of imports was much higher than the export volume. According to the import and export data of unforged aluminum alloy, China has changed from a net exporter to a net importer since 2020. In 2022, China will import 1.278 million tons of unforged aluminum alloy and export 225,000 tons, and foreign aluminum alloys are filling the rapid growth of domestic demand. On the whole, China's exports of full-caliber aluminum alloy products are still growing, but aluminum alloy raw materials are gradually turning to import supplements, which shows that China's manufacturing industry is gradually transforming and upgrading, gradually shifting from exports of aluminum alloy raw materials to exports of aluminum alloy finished products.
In recent years, China's aluminum alloy production has maintained a growth trend, and the output growth has accelerated in the past two years, which is mainly due to the incremental demand for the rapid development of the downstream photovoltaic and new energy automobile industries. In the context of environmental protection and low-carbon, the supply structure of aluminum alloy continues to change, and the growth of primary aluminum alloy production gradually stagnates, while the proportion of recycled aluminum alloy production and supply continues to grow. With the gradual entry of a large number of aluminum products into the scrap period, the supply of scrap aluminum is better to ensure the supply of recycled aluminum alloy, and the proportion of recycled aluminum supply will further increase. The structure of the final demand for aluminum alloy has changed significantly, and the proportion of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry in the final demand for aluminum alloy will be higher and higher. The volume of aluminum alloys used in the motorcycle, transportation and construction industries in the future is expected to continue to decline, especially in the construction industry, which will remain one of the most important demand terminals, but its gradual decline is difficult to avoid. The amount of aluminum alloy used in the home appliance industry is expected to increase steadily and slightly, but the proportion of the demand terminal will continue to decline. In addition, from the development trend of aluminum alloy imports and exports, China has gradually developed from the main export of aluminum alloy raw materials to the main export of aluminum alloy products. With the further deepening of China's economic development, China's exports of aluminum alloy related products or more and more to the end consumption extension.
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